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The ARRL Solar Update

06/19/2026

Solar activity has been low with only C-class solar flare activity.

Region 4465 underwent some decay and only produced a low-level
C-class flare. Region 4469 decayed further and was inactive. Region
4470 underwent some growth, but did not increase in magnetic
complexity and was primarily inactive. The largest solar flare of the
period, a C2.5 on June 17, came from just beyond the west limb with
the likely source being recently rotated out-of-view Region 4464. 

A coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible in STEREO coronagraph
imagery on June 17 and Compact Coronagraph (CCOR) imagery
approximately 30 minutes later. This eruption was first determined to
be far-sided due to SUVI 304 and 193 imagery; however, the
backfilling of a SOHO LASCO data gap prompted a re-analysis and it
has since concluded that there may be an Earth-directed component.
Modeling is currently ongoing.
 
There was an additional, faster, eruption off the east limb close to
the equator, with the resulting CME first appearing in LASCO C2
imagery on June 17. Due to its faintness, this CME is not visible in
other coronagraphs. Modeling of this event is also ongoing, but a
significant Earth-directed component is not anticipated.
 
Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels through June 20,
with a slight chance for M-class (R1-minor) solar flares due
primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 4465 and
4470.
 
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a weak disturbance in the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which was probably related to
anticipated early-stage coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
influences. The phi angle was quite variable between sectors. Solar
wind speed increased from 400 km/s to nearly 500 km/s before
declining to about 450 km/s. Mild solar wind disturbances and
enhancements are anticipated through June 20 due to weak positive
polarity CH HSS effects. 

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere June 19 by F. K. Janda OK1HH:

The low solar activity observed during the second decade of June will
be replaced by significantly higher activity in the third decade, as
the active regions observed by the Solar Orbiter on the far side of
the Sun will gradually emerge.

Geomagnetic activity will generally be relatively low, and shortwave
propagation conditions will be relatively favorable—within the limits
of the summer ionosphere in the Earth’s northern hemisphere, that is.

And, as was the case in the second third of June, we can expect a
significant influence from the sporadic E layer.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for June 20 to June 26 is 10, 5, 8,
12, 5, 5, and 5 with a mean of 7.1. The Predicted Planetary K Index
is 3, 2, 3, 4, 2, 2, and 2 with a mean of 2.6. 10.7 centimeter flux
is 132, 130, 112, 135, 136, 138, and 140 with a mean of 131.9.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.


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